🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $436,000 from Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the event. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been seized. A single trader, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Trading information shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But these probabilities had increased to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions just before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule put forward on recently aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to wager on everything from elections to politics. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry. A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."